With international and domestic air travel returning to pre-pandemic levels, Boeing (NYSE:BA) released its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) just before the Paris Air Show, forecasting demand for commercial aircraft and services over the next 20 years.
Boeing (BA) forecasts $8 trillion worldwide demand for 42,595 new commercial planes by 2042 as passenger traffic continues to outpace global economic growth of 2.6%, the global fleet nearly doubling to 48,600 jets, expanding 3.5% per year, and airlines replacing roughly half of the global fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models.
Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing said, “Looking to the future of air travel, our 2023 CMO reflects further evolution of passenger traffic tied to global growth of the middle class, investments in sustainability, continued growth for low-cost carriers, and air cargo demand to serve evolving supply chains and express cargo delivery.”
Boeing’s projections for regional demand and key trends through 2042 include:
- Asia-Pacific markets to represent more than 40% of global demand with half of that total in China.
- South Asia’s fleet will expand more than 7% annually, with India accounting for more than 90% of the region’s passenger traffic.
- North America and Europe each will account for about 20% of global demand.
- Low-cost carriers will operate more than 40% of the single-aisle fleet in 2042, up from 10% 20 years ago.
- This year’s CMO covers Russia and Central Asia in the Eurasia region, which will account for 3% of the global fleet by 2042.
- Commercial Services forecasts a $3.8 trillion market for digital solutions, parts and supply chain solutions, maintenance and modification options, and effective training to enhance safety and support the pilot and technician pipeline.
Boeing forecasts demand for the following models over the next 20 years:
- New single-aisle airplanes will account for more than 75% of all new deliveries, up slightly from the 2022 outlook, and totaling more than 32,000 airplanes.
- New widebody jets will be nearly 20% of deliveries, with more than 7,400 airplanes enabling airlines to open new markets and serve existing routes more efficiently.
- Air cargo will continue to outpace global trade growth, with carriers requiring 2,800 dedicated freighters. This includes more than 900 new widebodies as well as converted narrow-body and widebody models.