Adobe released its online shopping forecast for the 2023 holiday season. The firm generated its forecast by analyzing commerce transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.
U.S. online holiday sales are forecast to increase 4.8% year-over-year this holiday season to $221.8B, which would mark an acceleration from the 3.5% growth from a year ago. Adobe previewed that never-before seen discounts, and the increased usage of the Buy Now, Pay Later flexible spending method will help drive online spending this season as consumers look to stretch their budgets when making purchases. Additionally, shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a major milestone, surpassing desktop and driving over half (51.2%) of all online spending this season.
The closely-watched Cyber Week period that includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday is expected to see online sales growth of 5.4%. Adobe expects Cyber Monday will remain the season’s and year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $12B in spending.
“Despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, we expect strong e-commerce growth this season on account of record discounts and flexible payment methods,” said Adobe exec Patrick Brown.
Adobe anticipates discounts will hit record highs this holiday season, as retailers contend with an uncertain spending environment and consumers who continue to deal with rising costs in areas such as food and gas. Of the 18 categories tracked by Adobe, toys, electronics and apparel are expected to offer the biggest deals. Other categories with notable discounts include sporting goods, TVs, and furniture/bedding.
The official tracking period for the holiday season is November 1 to December 31, which means that Amazon’s Prime Deal Big Deal Days event and overlapping shopping promotions from Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY) and others are outside the forecast. Online retailers Etsy (ETSY) and Wayfair (W) have also said they will look to get an early jump on holiday sales.